Is it getting better? — hit rate over time
Cumulative share of calls that got the direction right, after each graded forecast. Above the dashed line beats guessing. Early numbers jump around — trust the line once it has 50+ calls behind it.
Score
Brain vs brain
| Brain | Calls | Hit rate | Avg size error | Avg confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Always up (baseline) always-up | 24 | 62% | 3.3% | 50% |
| Chart rules rules-v1 | 20 | 55% | 5.7% | 61% |
| TradingView consensus rules-v2-tv | 31 | 45% | 4.9% | 56% |
A coin flip scores 50%, but that is the wrong bar. Most things drift upwards, so the honest test is the always-up brain — it looks at nothing whatsoever and says up every time. Over the past four years this watchlist finished a seven-day window higher 52.5% of the time on average, and 62% for Royal Bank. A brain that cannot clear that is adding confidence, not intelligence.
It will not win everywhere, which is the other reason it is here: Vietnamese stocks finished LOWER more often than higher over the same period, as did XRP and Solana. One rule applied everywhere and reported per ticker shows exactly where “just buy it” works. A rule that adapted per market could not show that, because it would have fitted itself to the answer first.
Open forecasts — waiting to be graded (8)
| Ticker | Brain | Says | By |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT Microsoft | Chart rules | +1.7% | 2026-10-06 |
| NVDA Nvidia | TradingView consensus | +2.2% | 2026-10-06 |
| NVDA Nvidia | Chart rules | +1.7% | 2026-10-08 |
| AAPL Apple | TradingView consensus | +1.6% | 2026-10-09 |
| AAPL Apple | Always up (baseline) | +3.1% | 2026-10-09 |
| MSFT Microsoft | Always up (baseline) | +3.4% | 2026-10-09 |
| NVDA Nvidia | Always up (baseline) | +4.1% | 2026-10-09 |
| MSFT Microsoft | TradingView consensus | +1.8% | 2026-10-12 |
Graded calls, newest first
| Result | Ticker | Brain | Said | Actual | Graded | Why it said that |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ HIT | MSFT | TradingView consensus | +1.4% | +2.7% | 2026-10-05 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. BUY — 14 indicators bullish, 3 bearish, 9 neutral (net +0.42). Oscillators SELL, moving averages STRONG_BUY, RSI 60. Typical daily move 1.5%, so ~3.4% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✓ HIT | NVDA | Always up (baseline) | +4.1% | +5.3% | 2026-10-02 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +4.11%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✓ HIT | MSFT | Always up (baseline) | +3.4% | +0.6% | 2026-10-02 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +3.38%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✗ MISS | AAPL | Always up (baseline) | +3.1% | -0.8% | 2026-10-02 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +3.13%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✗ MISS | AAPL | TradingView consensus | +1.3% | -2.2% | 2026-10-01 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. BUY — 14 indicators bullish, 3 bearish, 9 neutral (net +0.42). Oscillators NEUTRAL, moving averages STRONG_BUY, RSI 63. Typical daily move 1.3%, so ~3.0% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✓ HIT | NVDA | Chart rules | +6.2% | +3.1% | 2026-10-01 | reasoningRules only, no news. 20-day average is above the 50-day (uptrend); price is above its 20-day average; up 1.8% over the last week (momentum). Signals net +1.00; typical daily move 2.8%, so ~6.2% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✓ HIT | NVDA | TradingView consensus | +3.3% | +1.0% | 2026-09-29 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. BUY — 15 indicators bullish, 1 bearish, 10 neutral (net +0.54). Oscillators NEUTRAL, moving averages STRONG_BUY, RSI 58. Typical daily move 2.8%, so ~6.2% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✓ HIT | MSFT | Chart rules | +1.6% | +1.2% | 2026-09-29 | reasoningRules only, no news. 20-day average is above the 50-day (uptrend); price is above its 20-day average; up 1.5% over the last week (momentum); near the top of its 3-month range (95%), stretched. Signals net +0.50; typical daily move 1.4%, so ~3.1% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✗ MISS | AAPL | Chart rules | +1.5% | -2.9% | 2026-09-29 | reasoningRules only, no news. 20-day average is above the 50-day (uptrend); price is above its 20-day average; up 3.4% over the last week (momentum); near the top of its 3-month range (100%), stretched. Signals net +0.50; typical daily move 1.3%, so ~3.0% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✗ MISS | MSFT | TradingView consensus | +0.6% | +3.9% | 2026-09-28 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. BUY — 11 indicators bullish, 6 bearish, 9 neutral (net +0.19). Oscillators NEUTRAL, moving averages BUY, RSI 53. Typical daily move 1.4%, so ~3.0% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✓ HIT | NVDA | Always up (baseline) | +4.1% | +1.3% | 2026-09-25 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +4.08%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✓ HIT | MSFT | Always up (baseline) | +3.4% | +4.3% | 2026-09-25 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +3.41%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✗ MISS | AAPL | Always up (baseline) | +3.1% | -0.1% | 2026-09-25 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +3.15%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✓ HIT | NVDA | Chart rules | +6.3% | +1.8% | 2026-09-24 | reasoningRules only, no news. 20-day average is above the 50-day (uptrend); price is above its 20-day average. Signals net +1.00; typical daily move 2.8%, so ~6.4% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✓ HIT | AAPL | TradingView consensus | +1.3% | +0.8% | 2026-09-24 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. BUY — 14 indicators bullish, 3 bearish, 9 neutral (net +0.42). Oscillators NEUTRAL, moving averages STRONG_BUY, RSI 62. Typical daily move 1.4%, so ~3.1% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✗ MISS | NVDA | TradingView consensus | -1.9% | +7.3% | 2026-09-22 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. SELL — 4 indicators bullish, 12 bearish, 10 neutral (net -0.31). Oscillators NEUTRAL, moving averages STRONG_SELL, RSI 44. Typical daily move 2.8%, so ~6.3% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✓ HIT | MSFT | Chart rules | +1.3% | +0.0% | 2026-09-22 | reasoningRules only, no news. 20-day average is above the 50-day (uptrend); price is above its 20-day average; up 2.2% over the last week (momentum); near the top of its 3-month range (95%), stretched. Signals net +0.50; typical daily move 1.2%, so ~2.7% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✓ HIT | AAPL | Chart rules | +3.3% | +3.7% | 2026-09-22 | reasoningRules only, no news. 20-day average is above the 50-day (uptrend); price is above its 20-day average; up 4.5% over the last week (momentum). Signals net +1.00; typical daily move 1.5%, so ~3.3% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✓ HIT | NVDA | Always up (baseline) | +4.1% | +1.8% | 2026-09-18 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +4.09%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✗ MISS | MSFT | Always up (baseline) | +3.4% | -0.4% | 2026-09-18 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +3.44%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✓ HIT | AAPL | Always up (baseline) | +3.1% | +1.2% | 2026-09-18 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +3.10%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✗ MISS | MSFT | TradingView consensus | +1.0% | -0.4% | 2026-09-18 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. BUY — 13 indicators bullish, 4 bearish, 9 neutral (net +0.35). Oscillators NEUTRAL, moving averages STRONG_BUY, RSI 57. Typical daily move 1.3%, so ~3.0% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✓ HIT | AAPL | TradingView consensus | +2.1% | +1.9% | 2026-09-17 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. STRONG_BUY — 17 indicators bullish, 0 bearish, 9 neutral (net +0.65). Oscillators BUY, moving averages STRONG_BUY, RSI 59. Typical daily move 1.4%, so ~3.2% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✗ MISS | NVDA | TradingView consensus | +3.3% | -5.6% | 2026-09-15 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. BUY — 15 indicators bullish, 1 bearish, 10 neutral (net +0.54). Oscillators BUY, moving averages STRONG_BUY, RSI 56. Typical daily move 2.8%, so ~6.2% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✗ MISS | NVDA | Always up (baseline) | +4.1% | -5.2% | 2026-09-11 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +4.06%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✗ MISS | MSFT | Always up (baseline) | +3.4% | -0.8% | 2026-09-11 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +3.41%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✓ HIT | AAPL | Always up (baseline) | +3.4% | +3.8% | 2026-09-11 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +3.37%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✓ HIT | MSFT | TradingView consensus | +0.7% | -0.8% | 2026-09-11 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. BUY — 11 indicators bullish, 5 bearish, 10 neutral (net +0.23). Oscillators NEUTRAL, moving averages STRONG_BUY, RSI 59. Typical daily move 1.4%, so ~3.2% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✗ MISS | NVDA | Chart rules | +3.1% | -5.2% | 2026-09-11 | reasoningRules only, no news. 20-day average is above the 50-day (uptrend); price is above its 20-day average; up 5.9% over the last week (momentum); near the top of its 3-month range (100%), stretched. Signals net +0.50; typical daily move 2.8%, so ~6.3% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✗ MISS | AAPL | TradingView consensus | +1.5% | -0.5% | 2026-09-10 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. STRONG_BUY — 16 indicators bullish, 1 bearish, 9 neutral (net +0.58). Oscillators NEUTRAL, moving averages STRONG_BUY, RSI 63. Typical daily move 1.2%, so ~2.6% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✓ HIT | NVDA | TradingView consensus | +2.9% | +2.7% | 2026-09-08 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. BUY — 14 indicators bullish, 2 bearish, 10 neutral (net +0.46). Oscillators NEUTRAL, moving averages STRONG_BUY, RSI 54. Typical daily move 2.8%, so ~6.3% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✗ MISS | MSFT | Chart rules | +1.4% | -3.3% | 2026-09-08 | reasoningRules only, no news. 20-day average is above the 50-day (uptrend); price is above its 20-day average; up 4.8% over the last week (momentum); near the top of its 3-month range (98%), stretched. Signals net +0.50; typical daily move 1.3%, so ~2.9% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✓ HIT | NVDA | Always up (baseline) | +4.0% | +5.9% | 2026-09-04 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +3.95%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✗ MISS | MSFT | Always up (baseline) | +3.5% | -2.7% | 2026-09-04 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +3.46%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✓ HIT | AAPL | Always up (baseline) | +3.4% | +0.1% | 2026-09-04 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +3.38%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✗ MISS | MSFT | TradingView consensus | +2.0% | -2.7% | 2026-09-04 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. STRONG_BUY — 15 indicators bullish, 1 bearish, 10 neutral (net +0.54). Oscillators NEUTRAL, moving averages STRONG_BUY, RSI 73. Typical daily move 1.6%, so ~3.7% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✓ HIT | NVDA | Chart rules | +2.9% | +0.9% | 2026-09-03 | reasoningRules only, no news. 20-day average is above the 50-day (uptrend); price is above its 20-day average; up 4.4% over the last week (momentum); near the top of its 3-month range (100%), stretched. Signals net +0.50; typical daily move 2.6%, so ~5.8% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✓ HIT | AAPL | TradingView consensus | +2.4% | +4.7% | 2026-09-03 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. BUY — 16 indicators bullish, 2 bearish, 8 neutral (net +0.54). Oscillators BUY, moving averages STRONG_BUY, RSI 51. Typical daily move 2.0%, so ~4.4% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✗ MISS | NVDA | TradingView consensus | -0.9% | +5.4% | 2026-08-31 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. SELL — 6 indicators bullish, 11 bearish, 9 neutral (net -0.19). Oscillators NEUTRAL, moving averages SELL, RSI 45. Typical daily move 2.1%, so ~4.8% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✓ HIT | MSFT | Chart rules | +8.3% | +4.8% | 2026-08-31 | reasoningRules only, no news. 20-day average is above the 50-day (uptrend); price is above its 20-day average; up 1.6% over the last week (momentum). Signals net +1.00; typical daily move 3.7%, so ~8.3% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✓ HIT | NVDA | Always up (baseline) | +3.9% | +1.3% | 2026-08-28 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +3.92%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✓ HIT | MSFT | Always up (baseline) | +3.4% | +6.3% | 2026-08-28 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +3.38%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✓ HIT | AAPL | Always up (baseline) | +3.4% | +3.4% | 2026-08-28 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +3.36%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✓ HIT | MSFT | TradingView consensus | +3.5% | +6.3% | 2026-08-28 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. BUY — 14 indicators bullish, 3 bearish, 9 neutral (net +0.42). Oscillators BUY, moving averages STRONG_BUY, RSI 62. Typical daily move 3.7%, so ~8.3% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✗ MISS | AAPL | TradingView consensus | +2.6% | -1.1% | 2026-08-26 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. BUY — 16 indicators bullish, 2 bearish, 8 neutral (net +0.54). Oscillators NEUTRAL, moving averages STRONG_BUY, RSI 54. Typical daily move 2.1%, so ~4.8% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✗ MISS | AAPL | Chart rules | +4.8% | -1.1% | 2026-08-26 | reasoningRules only, no news. 20-day average is above the 50-day (uptrend); price is above its 20-day average; up 4.8% over the last week (momentum). Signals net +1.00; typical daily move 2.1%, so ~4.8% expected over 5 sessions. |
| ✗ MISS | NVDA | Always up (baseline) | +4.0% | -4.7% | 2026-08-21 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +3.99%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✗ MISS | MSFT | Always up (baseline) | +3.3% | -2.8% | 2026-08-21 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +3.32%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✓ HIT | AAPL | Always up (baseline) | +3.3% | +1.3% | 2026-08-21 | reasoningSays up, every time, without looking at anything. It is the bar a real brain has to clear: most things drift upwards, so beating a coin flip proves nothing. Size is +3.34%, the average of this ticker's own past up-moves over the same horizon. |
| ✗ MISS | NVDA | TradingView consensus | +2.7% | -4.7% | 2026-08-21 | reasoningTradingView consensus, no news. BUY — 16 indicators bullish, 3 bearish, 7 neutral (net +0.50). Oscillators NEUTRAL, moving averages STRONG_BUY, RSI 63. Typical daily move 2.4%, so ~5.4% expected over 5 sessions. |
Showing the latest 50 of 75 — the full history lives in journal.json.
If somebody had traded TradingView consensus
Bought everything instead: $115.61. 31 graded calls, 4 of them left in cash.
If somebody had traded Always up (baseline)
Bought everything instead: $107.48. 24 graded calls, 0 of them left in cash.
If somebody had traded Chart rules
Bought everything instead: $110.25. 20 graded calls, 0 of them left in cash.
How the $100 is worked out
This agent does not trade. It makes seven-day guesses about direction and grades itself on them. The numbers above apply one fixed trading rule to those guesses. The rule was written after the results were already visible, so this is a made-up account on top of a real record — and it is the only rule that will ever be applied. There is no second version and no best-of.
The rule. Cut the account into 3 equal slices, one per name the agent watches. Every forecast gets one slice for its week: buy on an “up” call, sell short on a “down” call, leave the slice in cash on “flat”. A brain that called only one name that day had the rest of the money doing nothing — which is why this account is never more than fully invested and never borrows.
Every brain gets its own counter and there is no total. They call the same stocks on the same days; adding them up would count one market move twice.
Compare each number to the one beneath it, not to each other. “Bought everything instead” is the same calls, the same weeks, the same slice sizes, with the direction guess thrown away. That is the bar the forecasting has to clear.
Vietnamese “down” calls earn nothing, because you cannot short a Vietnamese stock from a retail account — those slices sit in cash. They are still graded, and it cuts both ways. “Flat” earns nothing on purpose: a forecaster who says “not much will happen” should not get paid for being right. And the $100 is a unit, not an account — no real $100 could short anything anywhere.
Activity — what the agent actually did
Written by the agent as it ran, not composed for this page afterwards — fetches, headlines read, ratings pulled, calls made and graded.